Search for: All records

Recent evidence has revealed the emergence of a megadrought in southwestern North America since 2000. Megadroughts extend for at least 2 decades, making it challenging to identify such events until they are well established. Here, we examined tree-ring growth and stable isotope ratios in Pinus ponderosa at its driest niche edge to investigate whether trees growing near their aridity limit were sensitive to the megadrought climatic pre-conditions, and were capable of informing predictive efforts. During the decade before the megadrought, trees in four populations revealed increases in the cellulose δ13C content of earlywood, latewood, and false latewood, which, based on past studies are correlated with increased intrinsic water-use efficiency. However, radial growth and cellulose δ18O were not sensitive to pre-megadrought conditions. During the 2 decades preceding the megadrought, at all four sites, the changes in δ13C were caused by the high sensitivity of needle carbon and water exchange to drought trends in key winter months, and for three of the four sites during crucial summer months. Such pre-megadrought physiological sensitivity appears to be unique for trees near their arid range limit, as similar patterns were not observed in trees in ten reference sites located along a latitudinal gradient in the same megadrought domain, despite similar drying trends. Our results reveal the utility of tree-ring δ13C to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns during the organizational phase of a megadrought, demonstrating that trees near the arid boundaries of a species’ distribution might be useful in the early detection of long-lasting droughts. 

Abstract Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair. 

High‐resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree‐ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth‐increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high‐frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low‐frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal‐scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real‐world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth‐increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.